Carnegie Investment Bank
Arlandastad Group
Date Title Alternative
2024-04-17 News flow from Skavsta strengthens our investment case Download | Show Close
2024-02-20 Solid revenues in Q4 Download | Show Close
2023-11-17 According to plan Show Close
2023-07-21 Underlying operations still heading in right direction Show Close
2023-02-16 Synergies and low LTV pave the way for further growth Show Close
Research | 16 Feb 2023 | Arlandastad Group

Synergies and low LTV pave the way for further growth

 

Continues to show strong rental growth

Revenues for full year came in at SEK 296m, representing y/y growth of 48%, versus our forecast of SEK 237m. The operating businesses are the area that has grown the strongest, following the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions. Operating businesses accounted for around 57% of total revenues and reported growth of some 60% y/y. Rental income from property management amounted to SEK 122.7m, corresponding to 39% growth y/y. Property values decreased by SEK 111m (down 1.7%) in Q4. On an annual basis, the value was up 6.6% versus 2021. The company maintains a low loan-to-value ratio of 25%.

Visibility of synergies between business areas

The company remains focused on developing the business conducted during 2022. Work at Explore Skavsta continues, and new routes have been added. Skavsta has also been designated a standby airport. At Explore Arlandastad, a lease agreement worth around SEK 110m was signed with Regeringskansliet (the Swedish Government Offices) in connection with Sweden’s EU presidency. This demonstrates how the company has been creating synergies to generate revenues and build value across the value chain and strengthen its business model. We believe this type of business will expand in the future in both property management and operating businesses as the company grows through these clear synergies.

Raising estimates for 2023–2025 and lifting the fair value

The real estate industry is facing a more challenging 2023 owing to rising financing costs and weaker business cycles. We believe, however, that Arlandastad Group is well equipped thanks to its relatively low loan-to-value rate and a business model that offers several revenue streams. In light of the robust revenue growth in the operating businesses and the solid order backlog, we raise our 2023–2025 revenue estimates by 12% and 19%, respectively. We nudge up our fair value to SEK 74–78 (72–74).

 

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2022-11-21 Progressing as planned Show Close

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