Carnegie Investment Bank
Angler Gaming
Date Title Alternative
2023-11-17 Still heading in the right direction Show Close
Research | 17 Nov 2023 | Angler Gaming

Still heading in the right direction

 

Revenues and trading update suggest full-year estimates will be achieved

Revenues came in at EUR 10.3m for Q3, which represented growth of 21.6% y/y. Q4 has started off strongly, with daily revenues 36% above the average for Q4 2022. Growth y/y has been propelled by customer deposits expanding by 11% y/y and robust hold of 62.1%. EBIT reached EUR 1.1m, with a margin of 10.6% and growth of 47.6% y/y. The EBIT development stems partly from gross margins rising to 25.8%, up from 24.9% in Q3 2022.

Marginal estimate changes

We leave our estimates for the current year unchanged, as the strong trading update and gross margin trend suggest the company is heading in the right direction. Given the solid player inflows, we lift our revenue estimates by 2,5% for 2024–2025. For the same period, we expect EBITDA up an average of 1,2% thanks to gross margins strengthening further. Overall, we believe the company’s initiatives to spur growth and profitability again have played out well in 2023. We reduce our EPS estimate for this year owing to FX-related costs.

 

Fair value reiterated

We leave our fair value for the forecast period unchanged. We consider the company now in a trend of being able to gradually increase its profitability and begin creating shareholder value. We see the initiatives it has taken in B2B will start to generate shareholder value, but we expect that more of a substantial impact on revenues from these needs to be seen before they can contribute to the company’s valuation.

 

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