Carnegie Investment Bank
Arlandastad Group
Date Title Alternative
2024-04-17 News flow from Skavsta strengthens our investment case Download | Show Close
2024-02-20 Solid revenues in Q4 Download | Show Close
Research | 20 Feb 2024 | Arlandastad Group

Solid revenues in Q4

 

All segments surpassed our expectations

Full-year rental income came in at SEK184m, equivalent to growth of 46%. Growth was driven primarily by higher turnover rents as well as indexation, coming in around SEK 15m above our full-year estimate. Revenues from operational businesses were SEK223.2m, implying growth of 33% Y/Y. This robust performance in both segments led to full-year gross profits of SEK111.9m, which represented growth of 63%. Results before value changes came in at SEK-89.5m, falling short of our full-year forecast of SEK-68m. The difference can be explained primarily by higher financing costs than anticipated (SEK103m versus SEK92m), the remainder mainly impacted by one-off costs associated with efficiency improvements at Skavsta. NAV as of year-end was SEK86m.

Robust development in rental income

Given the solid performance during the year, we lift our rental income estimate by 6.2% for the current year. Based on the larger cost structure, we lower our forecasts for profits before value changes by around SEK7m for 2024 and SEK4m for 2025. We consider these costs, primarily in the operational businesses, to be essential to bolstering rental values in the future. Our change to NAV for 2025 stems largely from the timing of future access.

 

Building rights portfolio for free at current share

We adjust our fair value to SEK62–68 (68–72). The foremost reason for this is ongoing challenges in the financing and project markets. At present, the Arlandastad Group share trades at around SEK30, which suggests a particularly low value for the building rights portfolio on the balance sheet – currently valued at around SEK3,200 per square metre. This can be compared to the latest JV deals at values around SEK4,500 per square metre. We thus believe the market has priced in that the company is in some form of financial distress, which we do not see as the case, given the low loan-to-value of 25% and its solid cash position of SEK234m.

 

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2023-11-17 According to plan Show Close
2023-07-21 Underlying operations still heading in right direction Show Close
2023-02-16 Synergies and low LTV pave the way for further growth Show Close
2022-11-21 Progressing as planned Show Close

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