Carnegie Investment Bank
Irisity
Date Title Alternative
2024-03-01 Coverage paused Download | Show Close
2024-01-31 Volume update on UK project Download | Show Close
2023-11-15 Guidance reiterated, but with reduced visibility Show Close
Research | 15 Nov 2023 | Irisity

Guidance reiterated, but with reduced visibility

 

Report in line with guidance

Net sales came in at SEK 32.3m for the quarter, implying growth of 143% y/y. This sound growth relates to the company now seeing large project revenues, with MRR unchanged q/q and declining SEK 0.2m y/y. EBITDA was SEK 1.4m, which was lower than required for it to achieve the full-year estimate. The company maintains its guidance for Q4 net sales at SEK 37–42m, despite the increased uncertainty given ongoing conflict in the Middle East, an important market and home to large parts of the company.

Preparing for an uncertain environment

We account for the uncertainty the company flags in the world around it by lowering our Q4 sales estimate by 4% to SEK 34m. Given that capitalisation and other income beat our estimates in Q3, we leave our total revenue forecast for 2023 unchanged. We cut EBITDA to zero, assuming an unchanged cost base. We reduce our 2024–2025 total revenue estimates by on average 1,7%. As we maintain our cost base expectations, we lower our 2024–2025 EBITDA forecasts by 8% and 5%, respectively.

 

Fair value maintained

Despite the increased near-term uncertainty, we believe Irisity has taken a number of steps in the right direction during the quarter. We base this on: 1) It has concluded its first OEM contract with US security company Identiv, confirming the strategy communicated by the new management. 2) The launch of the first tailor-made AI algorithm, “2 men on a motorcycle”. These two factors boost our confidence in our long-term view of Irisity. As a result, we leave our fair value unchanged. The adjustments to our sales estimates only affect the valuation within our fair value range.

 

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2023-10-04 A new deal Show Close
2023-08-15 Full-year guidance suggests growth has returned Show Close
2023-05-15 Working through 2022 order book Show Close
2023-02-28 Order book shows growth returning Show Close
2022-11-15 Most challenges lie ahead Show Close
2022-08-17 Organic growth accelerates Show Close
2022-05-25 Capital Market Day sets the pace going forward Show Close
2022-02-21 MRR growth and gross margin reach record highs Show Close
2021-08-09 Accelerating growth Show Close
2021-05-10 In line with our expectations and confirms commercialization plan Show Close
Net Sales & Net Result EBIT & EBIT Margin Net Debt & Net Debt/Equity EV/Sales & EV/EBIT & P/E Adjusted Dividend Yield Return on Equity Sales by Market Sales by Product

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