Date Title Alternative
2024-05-08 Heading towards easier comparables Download | Show Close
2024-04-04 Interestingly positioned Download | Show Close
2024-02-26 Strong finish to the year Show Close
2023-11-13 Implementing measures to strengthen profitability Show Close
2023-08-21 Growth below our year end estimate but solid profitability in the quarter Show Close
Research | 21 Aug 2023 | BTS Group

Growth below our year end estimate but solid profitability in the quarter

 

Weak growth in the quarter

Net sales reached SEK 703m in Q2, representing growth of 6%, although unchanged when adjusted for FX. We have assumed 12% growth for the full year. The weak organic growth was caused by the concerns previously seen in the US market – chiefly among tech companies – having spread to Europe and some other markets. EBITA for Q2 came in at SEK 106m, suggesting a margin of 15.1%. For the full year, we have forecast EBITA of SEK 350m and a margin of 12.3%. The quarter’s solid margin offers proof that the initiatives BTS has taken to increase profitability are bearing fruit. Based on the uncertain development in the quarter, the company has lowered its guidance to 2023 ending in line with 2022 (previously: 2023 to be a better year than 2022).

Strong history justifies premium valuation

Since its listing in 2001 BTS has seen currency-adjusted growth of 13% on average, while EBITA has grown by 16% over the same period. Given BTS’s status as the leader in a fragmented market, we expect this growth to continue. Over the past two years, the margin has improved versus the historical average, leading to an increase in return on equity. Thanks to its strong past, we consider DCF the best valuation method for the company.

 

Q2 profitability demonstrates BTS’s strength

Based on the uncertain economic situation, we lower our revenue estimates for BTS by 3.9% on average across our forecast period. Prompted by the updated guidance, we reduce our 2023 EPS estimate by 6%. We believe, however, that growth will pick up again in 2024–2025, meaning we only lower our revenue estimates for those years by 3.7% and our EPS estimates for the same years by an average of 4.1%. We have previously highlighted the low volatility in BTS’s EBITA margin as one of the company’s strengths, as confirmed by the Q2 report. We leave our fair value unchanged.

 

2023-06-21 Less conversation more action Show Close
2023-05-15 A challenging start to the year Show Close
2023-02-28 FX tailwind continued in the quarter Show Close
2022-11-14 FY guidance retained Show Close
2022-08-22 Beats every estimate and boosts forecasts Show Close
2022-05-17 Impressive growth Show Close
2022-04-13 Stronger than ever with a new CEO Show Close
2022-03-02 Stability in uncertain times Show Close
2021-08-19 Record quarter and improved outlook Show Close
2021-05-20 Strong profitability Show Close
2021-02-26 Resumed guidance provides upside potential in estimates Show Close
2020-08-19 Maintaining cost base in order to face pent up demand Show Close