Carnegie Investment Bank
BTS Group
Date Title Alternative
2024-05-08 Heading towards easier comparables Download | Show Close
2024-04-04 Interestingly positioned Download | Show Close
2024-02-26 Strong finish to the year Show Close
2023-11-13 Implementing measures to strengthen profitability Show Close
2023-08-21 Growth below our year end estimate but solid profitability in the quarter Show Close
2023-06-21 Less conversation more action Show Close
2023-05-15 A challenging start to the year Show Close
2023-02-28 FX tailwind continued in the quarter Show Close
Research | 28 Feb 2023 | BTS Group

FX tailwind continued in the quarter

 

Turnover slightly stronger than estimated

Turnover for the quarter was SEK 725m versus our estimate of SEK 723m. Adjusted for FX, growth was 11%, while total growth reached 27%. EBITA came in at SEK 114m, corresponding to a margin of 14%. This figure was slightly below our SEK 122m estimate. The deviation stemmed from a slightly lower margin from the BTS North America segment. BTS North America did show a solid recovery from Q3, though, with FX-adjusted growth of 17% y/y and 15% q/q. The company guides for a better 2023 than 2022.

Strong history justifies premium valuation

Since its IPO in 2001, BTS has seen average currency-adjusted growth of 13%, while EBITA has grown by 16% over the same period. Given its status as the leader in a fragmented market, we expect this growth to continue. Over the past two years, the margin has improved versus the historical average, leading to an increase in return on equity. Given its strong past, we consider DCF the best valuation method for the company.

 

Marginal estimate changes

Owing to the greater uncertainty in the economy, we lower our revenue estimates by an average of 2% for the
coming years. We believe the company will continue to be helped by positive currency tailwinds during H1 2023, supporting our growth estimate for the current year. Despite reducing our estimates, we maintain our fair value of SEK 425–430. We see potential acquisitions as a share price trigger for the company.

 

Download (EN)
2022-11-14 FY guidance retained Show Close
2022-08-22 Beats every estimate and boosts forecasts Show Close
2022-05-17 Impressive growth Show Close
2022-04-13 Stronger than ever with a new CEO Show Close
2022-03-02 Stability in uncertain times Show Close
2021-08-19 Record quarter and improved outlook Show Close
2021-05-20 Strong profitability Show Close
2021-02-26 Resumed guidance provides upside potential in estimates Show Close
2020-08-19 Maintaining cost base in order to face pent up demand Show Close

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