Revenues came in at EUR 21.5m for the quarter, revealing growth of 65.8% y/y and 22.1% q/q. This was driven by the Sub-affiliation segment, which saw growth of 264%. Given the healthy development in Q3 and that revenues of October hit EUR 7.7m, the company expects to end this year stronger than its revenue guidance of EUR 65–70m suggests. EBITDA was EUR 5.6m in Q3, with a margin of 26.1% and showing growth of 16.5% y/y. As the margin in Sub-affiliation is lower than in the affiliation marketing segment, full-year guidance for EBITDA of EUR 23–25m and FCF of EUR 13–15m is unchanged.

Given the exceptionally high growth in the quarter, we lift our revenue estimate for this year by 21.4%, meaning the company goes some EUR 8m higher than previous full-year guidance. We believe revenues for the rest of Q4 will be in line with that seen in the October update. Given the lower gross margin in Sub-affiliation, we lift our EBITDA estimate by 5%, taking it to the upper end of the full-year guidance range. For 2024–2025, we raise our revenue forecasts by 18.6% on average on account of the robust growth in Sub-affiliation. Given the change in the revenue mix, owing to Sub-Affiliation and its considerably lower gross margin, EBITDA will increase by an average of 1.7% in 2024–2025. Changes to EPS for the coming years stem from our expectation that all earnouts will be paid in cash and included in net debt.

Fair value maintained