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2024-04-24 An exciting future on the cards Download | Show Close
Research | 24 Apr 2024 | Diamyd Medical

An exciting future on the cards

 

Rights issue completed

Diamyd announced last week the results of its rights issue, with 50% of the total offering subscribed, meaning the company garners gross proceeds of SEK57m. Its cash chest at the end of Q2 (2023/24) was SEK137m, and we estimate it has likely risen to some SEK160–170m following the rights issue. On our estimates, Diamyd is now financed a good way into 2025, even without including additional capital injections from existing warrants and options (potentially totalling SEK163m). Should these be fully subscribed, we believe Diamyd will have sufficient capital to take it far into 2026.

Fast track for Diamyd

In February, the company announced it had received fast track designation for its Diamyd immunotherapy. This is one of the programmes the FDA can use to potentially simplify or shorten the route to market approval for a drug that it believes has the potential to address a large medical need. The company also stated more recently that 100 patients have now been included in the DIAGNODE 3 study, with none having dropped out so far. Given that Diamyd has been conservative in its assumptions regarding drop-outs from the study, we believe there is the possibility of its completing the study early while still achieving the targeted statistical strength. This means it believes around 280–290 patients should be sufficient in a scenario where only very few drop out.

 

New fair value

After adjusting for the cash injection, the new number of shares and the higher LoA for Diamyd at 50% (40%), our fair value ticks up to SEK20–22 per share (16–17). Diamyd now has an exciting future ahead, with interim analysis this summer as the key event and near-term catalyst for the share price.

 

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