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2024-04-24 An exciting future on the cards Download | Show Close
2024-01-26 All eyes on DIAGNODE-3 Download | Show Close
Research | 26 Jan 2024 | Diamyd Medical

All eyes on DIAGNODE-3

 

Comments on the report

Diamyd’s report for 1Q of the fiscal year ending in August 2024 was in line with our expectations. The operating result came in at SEK -32m (-33), while cash flow reach SEK 51m (10) following the completed rights issue. Diamyd’s cash position at the end of November was around SEK 177m. According to our estimates, this is sufficient to finance operations a little way into 2025.

Interim data expected in July

Interim data from the DIAGNODE-3 study should be released in July. This is an especially important data point as it will reveal whether the study has a clear likelihood of achieving its objectives based on the assumptions Diamyd made at the design stage. Interim analysis will be based on 70–80 patients and will evaluate the effect of Diamyd with regards to the C-peptide. We consider the bar for achieving the criteria to continue the study to be relatively low. Previous studies with Diamyd have shown a clear differentiation in the C-peptide between the treatment and the placebo group after six months. Meta analysis published in The Lancet in 2023 (Taylor et al.) to evaluate the relationship between the C-peptide and HbA1 showed that a clear separation in the C-peptide curves occurs particularly early after treatment initiation.

 

Aiming to recruit the last patient in 2024

We believe Diamyd has already recruited somewhere around 80–100 patients for the DIAGNODE-3 study. Of the targeted 60+ recruited clinics, approximately 50 are secured. Diamyd aims to recruit a total of 280–330 patients by the end of 2024. We consider this a bold but achievable target. Our estimated timeline is still built on what management has communicated, but we reiterate the risk we see of a slight delay.

After making small adjustments to our estimates, we arrive at fair value of SEK 16–17 (15-16) per share.

 

2023-11-09 Cash chest refilled Show Close
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2023-06-30 Money in the bank Show Close
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2023-04-11 In a solid position Show Close