Date Title Alternative
2024-04-17 News flow from Skavsta strengthens our investment case Download | Show Close
2024-02-20 Solid revenues in Q4 Download | Show Close
2023-11-17 According to plan Show Close
Research | 17 Nov 2023 | Arlandastad Group

According to plan

 

On track towards full-year revenue estimates

Revenues for Q3 came in at SEK 86.7m, of which SEK 45.5m was rental income and SEK 37.9m stemmed from operational businesses. The figures were higher than required to reach full-year estimates. Results before value changes – came in at SEK -21m. The reasons for the red figure were higher financing costs and expenses associated with the acquisition of Skavsta. The pre-tax result for the quarter was SEK -144.8m. The result was burdened by unrealised value changes of SEK 118.1m. These stem from increased yield requirements for the building rights portfolio. The average value of building rights at Arlandastad was SEK 3,174 per sqm, down by 8.7% y/y. At Skavsta, values rose marginally to SEK 308 per sqm (302). After the end of the quarter, the company received preventive damage compensation of SEK 385m for damage caused by Ostlänken affecting Skavsta. The amount will be paid out until 2027, with SEK 100m in Q4 2023 and another SEK 100m in Q1 2024.

Adjusting for the clearer view of the future

Given the revenues reported for the quarter, we raise our estimate for total revenues by 3%, largely attributable to Q3 rental income surpassing the level needed to reach the full-year estimate. For the rest of our forecast period, we lift total revenue estimates by 5% on average. Owing to the higher cost base in the quarter, partly on account of higher interest rates, we lower our estimates for results before value changes to SEK -68m (-8m) for this year and by SEK -4m for 2024. We leave our estimate for 2025 unchanged as property development is running according to plan.

 

Unchanged fair value

We consider Arlandastad Group to be one of the most interesting property companies listed in Stockholm thanks to 1) its high portfolio yield of 6.8%, and 2) its low loan-to-value ratio of 25% combined with the cash injection from Trafikverket (Swedish Transport Administration). During Q3, the company demonstrated strong business acumen through a JV with BRA Bygg that achieved value-creating property development in a challenging market. Moreover, the increased activity at Skavsta suggests the company will see a high return on invested capital in the future.

 

2023-07-21 Underlying operations still heading in right direction Show Close
2023-02-16 Synergies and low LTV pave the way for further growth Show Close
2022-11-21 Progressing as planned Show Close